Deuda pública y salud fiscal: un acto de equilibrio en América Latina y el Caribe

Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries are engaged in a complex effort to manage public debt and achieve fiscal stability following the economic shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Post-Pandemic Fiscal Adjustments: In response to a significant rise in fiscal deficits during the pandemic (from 2.9% of GDP in 2019 to 6.3% in 2020), many LAC governments implemented expansive fiscal measures. By 2022, several countries, particularly in Central America like Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, had successfully reduced their deficits and stabilized public accounts.

• Persistent Challenges: Despite these efforts, some nations experienced a deterioration in fiscal accounts in 2023, mainly due to slower economic activity impacting tax revenues and increased debt servicing costs from tighter global financial conditions. The average overall deficit for the region, when including Brazil, worsened to 5.1% of GDP in 2023. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Bolivia continue to face high fiscal deficits, requiring urgent economic reforms.

• Debt Sustainability Concerns: The region's gross public debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked at 76.1% in 2020, saw a slight improvement to 68% in 2022 before rising again to 73.7% in 2023. This increase was largely influenced by Argentina's substantial debt. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) suggests a maximum sustainable debt level of 80.5% of GDP for LAC, recommending a more prudent range of 44%-55% of GDP. Countries exceeding this prudent level may experience limited fiscal flexibility and slower economic growth.